Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 549
(N12E79), 551 (S08W55) and 555 (S14E45) produced a few B-class
flares. No significant changes were observed to regions on the
visible disk. New Region 556 (N16E22) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 554 and 551 may produce C-class flares. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions. A
solar sector boundary crossing was observed at ACE about 10/2320
UTC. ACE solar wind speed increased steadily from 380 km/s at
11/1600 UTC to 450 km/s at 2200 UTC, indicating that the earth may
be entering an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Periods of southward Bz occurred from 1100 UTC to 1800 UTC and
resulted in increased geomagnetic activity towards the end of the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on 12 and 13 February
as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective
position. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 14
February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 114 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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