Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 064 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 567
(S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout
the period. The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at
04/1007Z. A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a
cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center. An emerging
flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing
umbra, was assigned today. The remainder of the disk and limb were
quiet today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low
level M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high
speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the
middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this
writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Mar a 07 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Mar 098 Previsto 05 Mar-07 Mar 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 04 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/010-007/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Mar a 07 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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