Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 063 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and
a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb,
beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was
probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth
and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped
polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to low for
the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce
additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04
March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in
activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Mar 090 Previsto 04 Mar-06 Mar 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 03 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Mar 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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