Viendo archivo del martes, 2 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 062 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0659 UTC from departing Region 564
on the west limb at N15. Region 567 (S12W04) is now the largest
group on the disk with area of 140 millionths, but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (03-05 March).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show
persistence of a high speed wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole. There was a gradual overall decline in solar wind
velocity from around 700 km/s down to about 620 km/s during the past
24 hours, suggesting the high speed stream is beginning to wane. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
03-04 March. Conditions should decline to generally unsettled by 05
March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Mar 099 Previsto 03 Mar-05 Mar 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 02 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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