Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 058 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 564 (N14W42)
produced an M5.7 at 2230 UTC on the 26th. No CME activity was noted
with this eruption. The region continues to be active with several
point brightenings noted throughout the period. Region 565 (S04W21)
has remained unchanged since the 26th. Region 567 (S14E50) was
newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 564 continues to have the potential to produce
isolated major flaring through the 30th.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active levels at 0600 and 2100 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the 28th. Late on
the 29th and continuing through the 30th, a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream is expected to generate isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Feb a 01 Mar
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Feb 122 Previsto 28 Feb-01 Mar 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 27 Feb 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 008/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Feb a 01 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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