Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 059 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There were several B- and
C-class X-ray events during the period. Region 564 (N15W54) has had
no significant changes from yesterday and continues to have a good
potential to produce a major flare. There are an additional four
regions each classified as Beta magnetic configuration, that have a
fair potential to produce a major flare. Region 568 (S16W20) was
newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for isolated moderate. There remains a
good potential for Region 564 to produce a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to active with an
isolated period of minor storming at 0900 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a fair chance for
periods of minor storming through 2 March, due to the influence of a
high-speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Feb a 02 Mar
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Feb 116 Previsto 29 Feb-02 Mar 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 28 Feb 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Feb 020/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 020/020-020/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Feb a 02 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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