Viendo archivo del jueves, 26 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 057 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 564
(N14W27) produced an X1/2n major flare which occurred at 26/0203Z.
There was no indication of a CME in association with this flare on
LASCO imagery. Multiple B and C-class flares were observed
throughout the period. Many intermediate sunspots merged into a
single large penumbral magnetic delta complex. This region has
shown steady growth throughout the day. Region 565 (S05W07)
decreased in areal sunspot coverage although penumbra is now visible
in both polarities. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 564 has the potential to produce isolated
major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 29
February may experience active conditions due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Feb a 29 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Feb 121 Previsto 27 Feb-29 Feb 125/130/130 Media de 90 Días 26 Feb 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 008/012-008/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Feb a 29 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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