Viendo archivo del lunes, 29 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 363 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 525
(N09, L=292) produced a B8.9 flare at 1354Z on the west limb.
Region 528 (N08W69) continues to decay in area coverage and has
simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. A 24-degree filament
lifted off near S28E53 at 28/2240Z. A faint non-Earth directed CME
was associated with the disappearing filament.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 31 December and 01 January due to a small
coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| Clase M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Dec 115 Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/100/095 Media de 90 Días 29 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/010-010/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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