Viendo archivo del martes, 30 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W78)
produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb. Two small solar
filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four
hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten
degree filament disappeared near S21W04.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods
are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Dec 108 Previsto 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/095/085 Media de 90 Días 30 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 010/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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