Viendo archivo del martes, 2 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 336 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of
X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z.
The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283)
on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by
a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z.
This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from
Region 508 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long
duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at
1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a
slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 - 04 December. On
05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal
hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end
on 03 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Dec a 05 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Dec 139 Previsto 03 Dec-05 Dec 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 02 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/010-008/010-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Dec a 05 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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