Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 025 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were only two,
low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region
540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder
of the solar disk was stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT
started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The
magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining
temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The
geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions
beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC.
Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC
through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jan a 28 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Jan 102 Previsto 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 25 Jan 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Jan 020/033 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jan a 28 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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