Viendo archivo del jueves, 2 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 464 (N05W86) produced a
C7/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 02/0656Z. This region
continues to produce mostly minor C-class flares as it approaches
the west limb. Region 471 (S08E42), which continues to develop in
both size and magnetic complexity, produced a C4 flare at 02/1611Z.
Regular plage fluctuations and surge activity were observed in this
region throughout the period. No significant changes or activity
were noted in the remaining active regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 471.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels at the beginning of the period. Solar wind IMF signatures are
consistent with a transient passage, but solar wind speed has
remained quite low (300 - 400 km/s); consequently, geomagnetic field
impact was minimal.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 125 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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