Viendo archivo del viernes, 5 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
05/1301Z in Region 453 (S23W56). The fast growth rate observed in
this region during the last period has now slowed. Some minor
complexity was noted in this 200 millionths beta spot group. A
relatively bright plage field is rotating on the SE limb, but there
is no spot group visible yet. The remaining active regions were
mostly stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional low C-class flares are likely from Region
453.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind
speed is in gradual decline as the associated coronal hole moves out
of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from almost
700 km/s to near 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one as the current high speed stream subsides. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two before the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole on day three. Expect occasional active
periods as this coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Sep 108 Previsto 06 Sep-08 Sep 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 05 Sep 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 015/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 015/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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