Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed
at 04/1449Z. The likely source of this small flare was Region 452
(S08W84). New Region 453 (S23W44), numbered today as a D-class beta
group, emerged rather quickly over the past 24 hours and exhibited
occasional plage intensity fluctuations. New Region 454 (S10E22)
was also numbered today. The remaining active regions were either
steady or in decay.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are likely.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This weak disturbance
is due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds began
the period slightly elevated near 500 km/s, but gradually increased
to 650 - 700 km/s by the latter half of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through day one.
The high speed solar wind speed is expected to subside by day 2
resulting in a return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 112 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 115/120/125 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 018/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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