Viendo archivo del viernes, 8 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 220 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C2 flare occurred
at 1436Z from the east limb. Region 424 (S18W14) continues its
gradual decay and has simplified to a beta gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 425 (S09W17) was the source of a C1 flare at
1636Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 424 has the potential for isolated
M-class events. Activity from the east limb is likely to continue
and possibly increase over the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. Periods
of southward Bz near - 8 nT produced major and minor storm periods
early in the day. Solar wind speed increased from 600 km/s to near
800 km/s at 0600Z and has remained elevated.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm conditions are possible on day one of the period. On day two
and three of the period high speed stream effects are expected to
diminish resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Aug a 11 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Aug 133 Previsto 09 Aug-11 Aug 140/140/145 Media de 90 Días 08 Aug 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 025/034 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Aug a 11 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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