Viendo archivo del miércoles, 1 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73)
produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class
flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it
approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament
eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region
471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity,
produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no
significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 464 or 471.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of
southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on
the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds
(260 -300 km/s).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 137 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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