Viendo archivo del viernes, 3 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 276 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region
contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots
in this group were redefined as a separate active region and
assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was
noted this period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class
flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is
slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5
and -5 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated
active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly
unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal
hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Oct 120 Previsto 04 Oct-06 Oct 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 03 Oct 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 004/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/010-005/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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