Viendo archivo del sábado, 4 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 471 (S08E22)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 04/1547Z. This moderately complex region
has not shown much change over the past 24 hours and was responsible
for most of the low C-class flares this period. Old Region 464 (N05,
L=358), which is now behind the west limb, is still quite active,
producing a C2 flare and CME at 04/1317Z. New Region 474 (S14W49)
was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 471 is expected to continue producing C-class
flares and possibly an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 04/0600-0900Z. Solar wind speed remains slightly
elevated, but the IMF Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. A high speed
coronal hole stream will likely produce unsettled to active levels
on days two and three. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on
both days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Oct 119 Previsto 05 Oct-07 Oct 120/115/115 Media de 90 Días 04 Oct 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 011/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 008/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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