Viendo archivo del martes, 5 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 424 (S18E26)
produced an impulsive M1.7/Sn at 05/1249 UTC and a C1.1 flare at
05/1955 UTC. Region 421 (S07W43) produced a C3.5/Sf flare at
05/0914. Region 424 showed some growth in size and complexity. New
Region 429 (S24E55) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with C-class flares possible from Regions 424 or 425, and a slight
chance of isolated M-class flares from Region 424.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speeds
continued a steady decrease as the coronal hole moves out of
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on day one.
Activity may increase to unsettled to minor storm conditions on days
two and three due to a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position. Isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes are
possible days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Aug 131 Previsto 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 05 Aug 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/020-025/035-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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