Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 218 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Several B-class
flares were observed during the period, including a B8.7 from Region
424. Region 424 (S18E13) continues to grow in magnetic complexity
to a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 424 may produce C-class flares and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagentic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. ACE
satellite data indicated a consistent southward Bz at 06/0200 UTC,
with increasing solar wind speed thereafter, up to a maximum of 600
km/s. ACE data is consistent with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region and associated high speed solar wind from an
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity for the
next two days is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated
minor storm conditions, due to the increased solar wind stream from
an associated coronal hole in geoeffective position. On day three,
geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to unsettled conditions,
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Aug 129 Previsto 07 Aug-09 Aug 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 06 Aug 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 035/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 035/045-025/045-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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