Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 216 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424
(S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some
growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this
region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic
structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but
activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor
surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo
CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside
event.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has
slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues
to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates
out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz
account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial
coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and
produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of
the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are
expected on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Aug a 07 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Aug 123 Previsto 05 Aug-07 Aug 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 04 Aug 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 008/015-015/025-025/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Aug a 07 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
sábado, 4 mayo 2024
Sunspot region 3663, X1 solar flare
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR3663 151AR3664 14Unproven theories 383Weakening of Earths magnetic field due to geomagnetic excursion 10CME 2024-MAY-01 south of AR3654 C5.8 6
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/05 | X1.2 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/05 | M7.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 153.8 +59.7 |