Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 444 (N08W60)
produced a B4.1 at 01/1411 UTC, optically correlated with SXI
imagery. No active regions have shown any significant changes. A
17-degree filament erupted near N23W60 sometime between 01/0045 and
01/1301 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 448 (N20W20) and 449 (S16E13) may produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to active levels, due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed at ACE increased to
500 km/s during the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions, as a coronal hole continues to move into geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 108 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 115/115/125 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 026/030-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 15% |
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