Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 037 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. An M1.2
at 06/0349 UTC from Region 278 (N18E64) was the only M-class
activity. There were several C-class flares, with a maximum of C3.4
at 06/0214 UTC from Region 277 (S17E55). Regions 276 (S15E22), 277, and
278 continue to show activity. Regions 280 (S08E29) and 281
(S14E73) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with isolated M-class flare activity from Regions 276,
277, and 278 possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
observation shows a continued high speed stream associated with a
coronal hole. The greater than 2MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have been at mostly high levels for the last 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
For the forecast period, the
geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled
with isolated periods of active levels due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Feb 150 Previsto 07 Feb-09 Feb 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 06 Feb 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 007/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/010-005/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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