Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 036 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-class
flare of C2.1 occurred at 05/2037 UTC which was optically
uncorrelated. Regions 276 (S13E27), 277 (S20E54), and 278 (N19E65)
continue to show activity with several occurrences of B-class
flaring.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a moderate chance of C-class flaring, and a slight chance of
isolated M-class flaring from regions 276, 277, and 278.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continued high-speed
stream associated with a coronal hole structure. The greater than
2MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been at high
levels for most of the last 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled through tomorrow, with isolated
active periods throughout. These conditions should remain for the
next 24-48 hours due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Feb 140 Previsto 06 Feb-08 Feb 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 05 Feb 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 014/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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