Viendo archivo del martes, 4 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 035 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Feb 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100 UTC to 04/2100 UTC: Solar activity was at low levels during the past 24 hours. Region 278 (N20E81) produced the only C-flare, a C1.4 at 04/2016 UTC. Region 276 (S13E45) continues to be the largest region on the disk with an area of 260 millionths and fairly continuous point brightenings. New regions 277 (S19E70) have produced several B-class flares, and show continual activity.IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate. Regions 276, 277, and 278 have potential for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continuation of
yesterday's enhanced flow associated with a coronal hole structure
in the northern hemisphere. Flow should return to nominal levels in
the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes briefly
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some
isolated active periods later in the day. An increase to active
levels is expected for the second day due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| Clase M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Feb 135 Previsto 05 Feb-07 Feb 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 04 Feb 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 017/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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