Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 008 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 251 (S14E70)
produced an M4/0f event at 07/2333 UTC. This region is currently a
Dki beta gamma group with 11 spots. Regions 242 (S08W22) and 244
(S22W16) produced several low to mid-level C-class events. Region
242 continues to grow slightly in area and sunspot count and also
contains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the next three days.
Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January due to
expected coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jan 174 Previsto 09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190 Media de 90 Días 08 Jan 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/010-010/015-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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