Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 009 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 251 (S13E58)
produced an M1/1n event at 09/0537 UTC. Region 242 (S08W34) and 251
both continue to retain their beta gamma magnetic configuration.
Another region of interest is Region 247 (S17E34) which has shown
significant growth in area and spot count. It is currently at 340
millionths of white light coverage with 36 spots. A new region was
numbered today as Region 252 (S04E61).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 242, 247, and 251 are all capable of producing
an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on 10 January as a result of coronal hole activity.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jan 183 Previsto 10 Jan-12 Jan 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 09 Jan 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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