Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 362 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The now spotless Region
235 (N13W08) produced a subfaint flare early in the period, but has
been quiet since. Occasional intensity enhancements accompanied a
small increase in the size and complexity of Region 236 (N16W41).
New Regions 237 (S26E00) and 238 (N09E15) were numbered today. The
remaining regions are small, showing no significant changes this
period. There are several large, but mostly quiescent filaments on
the visible disk. Occasional motion was noted in the large filament
centered near N22W12. A long duration, but low intensity X-ray
enhancement was observed beginning at around 28/1700Z. This was
likely associated with a strong CME that appears to have originated
behind the NW limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. There's a chance for low C-class activity from Regions
234 (N19E19) and 236.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active at all
latitudes. A high speed stream, associated with a large equatorial
coronal hole, began late on 26 Dec and continues to buffet the
magnetic field. The peak solar wind in this high speed stream
exceeded 750 km/s, but has declined slowly to near 650 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The high speed coronal hole
stream currently impacting the geomagnetic field will gradually
subside through day one. Ejecta from the CME off the NW limb late in
the period today does not appear Earthbound. Expect mostly unsettled
levels through days two and three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Dec 117 Previsto 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/120 Media de 90 Días 28 Dec 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 022/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR3654 21Unspecified geomagnetic activity 949Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9IMF - BT strength 8
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/27 | M2.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 138.1 +30.7 |