Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 363 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 28/2314Z
and was likely associated with the eruption of segments of a
filament near N15E40. A faint CME was observed following the
filament disappearance. The remaining segments of this horseshoe
shaped filament continue to be quite active. The large filament near
N25W25 is also quite active. The handful of regions on the sun are
small with simple magnetic structure. New region 239 (S10E37) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The best chance for a C-class flare is from Region 234
(N18E05).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated - near 550 km/s, due to a high speed coronal hole
stream. The high speed stream is declining as the coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through the next
three days. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Dec 115 Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 115/115/120 Media de 90 Días 29 Dec 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-008/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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