Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
The largest of these was a C5/Sf at 1528 UTC from Region 208
(N10E49). Region 208 exhibited the brightest plage of the five
spotted groups on the disk, and it has some mixed magnetic
polarities within an overall bipolar structure. Region 207 (S19E20)
continues to be the largest region on the disk but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event over the next three days from Regions 207 and 208.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind with weakly negative Bz
continues in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic activity is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels over the next two
days. A decrease to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third
day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Dec 150 Previsto 02 Dec-04 Dec 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 01 Dec 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 014/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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