Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 180 (S10E30)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.4/Sf flare
at 04/1823 UTC. This region has more than doubled in white-light
penumbral coverage since yesterday and produced the vast majority of
the reported flare activity today. A gamma magnetic structure
remains evident. Region 177 (N16E05) has shown slight decay today
although it remains a beta-gamma magnetic group. The largest event
seen today from this region was a C3.7/Sf flare that occurred at
04/0330 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 177 and 180 exhibit the potential
for M-class flare production.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward
and the solar wind speed was elevated throughout the period in
response to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with occasional minor
to major storm levels mostly at high latitudes through day two.
Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Nov 177 Previsto 05 Nov-07 Nov 175/175/180 Media de 90 Días 04 Nov 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 015/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Nov 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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