Viendo archivo del domingo, 3 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 307 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 177 (N16E18)
produced an M1/1f event at 03/1403 UTC. This region remains the
largest and most complex of the numbered regions on the solar disk
and contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 180
(S10E43) has grown in spot count since yesterday and also contains a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered
today as Region 183 (N19W24), 184 (S06E51), and 185 (S12E77).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 177 and 180 have potential for producing an
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The solar wind data indicates the possible effects are
from a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 04 November with predominately
quiet to unsettled conditions for 05-06 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Nov 169 Previsto 04 Nov-06 Nov 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 03 Nov 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Nov 013/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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