Viendo archivo del sábado, 2 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 306 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated
long duration C3 event occurred at 02/0607 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO
imagery indicate the possible source as being a CME observed just
over the NW limb which does not appear to be Earth directed. Region
177 (N16E31) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk
and has grown slightly since yesterday. Two new regions were
numbered today as Region 181 (S06E42) and 182 (S17E68).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 177 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at 02/1200 UTC. A steady increase
in the solar wind with intermittent periods of southward Bz allowed
for the minor storming observed today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active for the next three
days in response to a recurring coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Nov a 05 Nov
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Nov 165 Previsto 03 Nov-05 Nov 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 02 Nov 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Nov 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 020/025-015/025-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Nov a 05 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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