Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 279 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 139
(N11E19) produced two M-class flares, the largest an M2.4/1n at
06/0451 UTC. Region 139 has shown slight decay in overall area
coverage but some area growth and mixing polarities in the leader
spots. There has been little change in Region 137 (S19W48) over the
last 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 and 137 have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A six-hour
period of southward Bz (02Z to 08Z) was associated with a sector
boundary crossing and resulted in active to minor storm conditions
(03Z to 09Z). Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Transient effects from
weak CME activity on 04 Oct are possible on day one of the forecast
period. Coronal hole effects are expected on day one and day two of
the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Oct 162 Previsto 07 Oct-09 Oct 170/175/180 Media de 90 Días 06 Oct 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/029 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 020/020-025/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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