Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 252 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E54)
produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC. This
event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103
(N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class
flares earlier in the day. Region 105 is the largest spot group on
the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for the next three days. Region 105 is a
likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also
produce an isolated major flare. Region 103 is undergoing some
growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days. An
evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated
active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole
effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second
and third days of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Sep 206 Previsto 10 Sep-12 Sep 210/220/225 Media de 90 Días 09 Sep 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 019/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-012/015-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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