Viendo archivo del martes, 8 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 281 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W07) remains a
fairly large sunspot group with some mixed polarity spots but has
only produced low-level C-class flares over the past 48 hours.
Growth in the region has ceased and little change in appearance was
noted since yesterday. New Region 145 (N12E76) is rotating onto the
disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The sustained southward IMF experienced over the past two days
appears to be coming to an end. For the past few hours Bz has
returned to +/- 5 nT variations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active. Nighttime substorms are
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Oct 165 Previsto 09 Oct-11 Oct 165/165/170 Media de 90 Días 08 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 021/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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