Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 361 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity reached very low levels this period.
Occasional subflares were observed in decaying Region 230 (S04W77)
as it approached the west limb. New Region 236 emerged today and
produced occasional plage enhancements and a B-class subflare late
in the period The remaining regions are small with simple magnetic
structure.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes. These storm
conditions are a result of a large coronal hole that rotated into a
geoeffective position late yesterday. Solar wind speed ranged from
700 - 800 km/s during the latter half of this period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels in response
to the existing high speed, coronal hole stream. Expect the storming
to gradually subside over days two and three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Dec 117 Previsto 28 Dec-30 Dec 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 27 Dec 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Dec 008/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 020/025-015/030-008/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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