Viendo archivo del miércoles, 30 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
Most of the flare activity was from Region 162 (N25W82). Additional
contributions came from Region 175 (N16E44) which showed steady
growth during the past 24 hours. A 16 degree filament near S02W30
erupted between 29/2224 UTC and 30/0048 UTC. The eruption was
associated with a narrow CME from the southwest limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
M-class flares are Regions 162 and 175.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, except for an
interval of active to minor storm conditions from 0600-1200 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Oct 168 Previsto 31 Oct-02 Nov 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 30 Oct 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 010/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 014/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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