Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 276 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 137
(S19W05) produced an M2/1n flare and associated CME at 03/0221Z.
This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, however,
there was indication of a delta configuration developing in the
trailing spot. Region 134 (N14W42) exhibited considerable decay. No
other significant changes observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 137 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A CME was
observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 02/2200Z. Though it
was a relatively modest shock, several extended periods of southward
IMF Bz ensued, creating the minor to major storm periods. The storm
is assumed to be associated to the CME activity observed early on 30
Sep.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through the next
three days. A CME was observed early today in association with the
M2 flare in Region 137. Though most of the material appeared
southward directed, we may experience some minor effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Oct 146 Previsto 04 Oct-06 Oct 145/150/160 Media de 90 Días 03 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 031/044 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 025/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 018/015-015/012-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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