Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels. A total of five M-class flares were observed this period. Region 137 (S19W20) was the primary source for this activity, producing four M-class flares, the largest being an M4/1n at 04/0538Z. A delta configuration was observed to develop in this region late yesterday, and the region exhibited frequent flare activity since. Region 139 appears to be growing quickly as it rotates into view. This region produced an M1/1f flare with associated Type II sweep (357 km/s) at 04/1255Z, and also produced several moderate C-class flares. A delta configuration is obvious and white light areal coverage is nearing 500 millionths. New Region 140 (S07E76) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Complex Regions 137 and 139 will continue to produce M-class activity, with increasing likelihood for a major flare from Region 139 as it continues to develop.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to major storm levels with an isolated severe storm period between 04/00 - 03Z. Though solar wind speed remains below 450 km/s, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was sustained southward for the entire period, ranging from -2 to -12 nT. The storm was gradually subsiding by the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods possible. Transient effects from CMEs observed early on 3 Oct and again on 4 Oct will likely enhance the disturbed periods on days two and three. A large, recurrent southern coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Oct a 07 Oct
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Oct 158
  Previsto   05 Oct-07 Oct  160/170/180
  Media de 90 Días        04 Oct 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Oct  022/033
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Oct  035/045
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  018/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Oct a 07 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%50%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%20%

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