Viendo archivo del martes, 29 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 302 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1/Sf at 0320 UTC from Region 162 (N25W72). The group
produced additional subflares throughout the day including a C9/Sf
at 1633 UTC. The penumbral area that contained the delta
configuration yesterday appears to be breaking up today. Region 173
(S18W82), which emerged yesterday, continued to develop and produced
numerous subflares during the latter half of the day. New Region 175
(N15E57) was assigned today and produced a C8/Sf at 1530 UTC. New
regions 174 (S25E55) and 176 (N13E75) were also assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare
activity from Region 162.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 0900-1200
UTC. The high speed coronal hole solar wind stream showed signs of
decline throughout the day and nominal solar wind plasma parameters
were observed by forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Oct 162 Previsto 30 Oct-01 Nov 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 29 Oct 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 010/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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