Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 242 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 95
(N07E65) produced an X1/Sf flare at 30/1329 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
457 km/s, a 780 sfu Tenflare, and significant discrete radio bursts.
It appears to have fully rotated on to the visible disk and it
appears to contain a beta-gamma magnetic structure. This region was
also responsible for multiple C-class flares during the period.
Region 87 (S08W33) continued to show steady decay in penumbral
structure as the magnetic delta complex is no longer evident. New
Region 96 (S14E75) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 87 and 95 are both capable of producing
isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Aug 170 Previsto 31 Aug-02 Sep 170/165/165 Media de 90 Días 30 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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