Viendo archivo del jueves, 26 septiembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 269 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Sep 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity consisted of occasional low-level C-class subflares. The majority of these were from Region 132 (N20W53), which continues to be the largest group on the disk and also the most complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This group has decreased in area during the past 24 hours. Region 134 (N11E50) showed moderate growth and managed to produce a subflare. Region 130 (N06W04) also showed growth.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 132 or Region 134.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days. There is a possibility for an increase to unsettled to active late on the third day as a positive polarity coronal hole will be rotating into a geoeffective position at that time.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Sep a 29 Sep
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Sep 150
  Previsto   27 Sep-29 Sep  145/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        26 Sep 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Sep  001/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  005/007-005/007-010/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Sep a 29 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%

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