Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. An unobserved C6 x-ray flare at
0232UTC was the most energetic event of the day. Region 162 (N26E10)
continues to dominate the disk. Although its plage forms one
contiguous field, there are indications that the region may contain
two bipoles. The westernmost large spot shows hints of a contained
magnetic structure, while the easternmost spots, although
unorganized, have a distinctive bipolar topology. The region may be
reclassified, pending further evolutionary changes. Elsewhere, two
new regions, 166 (S06E08) and 167 (N18E75), were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled, with an increasing chance of
active levels near the end of the interval. Effects of a high speed
solar wind stream may be seen on 26 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Oct 164 Previsto 24 Oct-26 Oct 165/160/160 Media de 90 Días 23 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/015-010/010-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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