Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 95 (N07E51)
was responsible for the majority of today's flare activity. The
largest was a C9/Sf flare that occurred at 31/1956 UTC.
White-light imagery depicts a steady growth in this groups
intermediate spots and associated penumbral coverage. Analysis
suggest that there may be several delta configurations contained in
this beta-gamma-delta magnetically structured group. Region 87
(S08W47) showed slight growth this period and remains a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. New Regions 97 (N13E36) and 98 (S10E76) were
assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 87 and 95 have the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 180 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 180/175/165 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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