Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 agosto 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. After further review of a more comprehensive database set, it appears that the M4 flare that occurred yesterday (no region has been assigned to flare) at 28/1859 UTC could have originated from several different source regions. The most probable source region appears to be from the northeast limb which corresponds to Region 95 (N07E76), which rotated onto the visible disk and became a newly numbered region today. Region 95 did produce the largest flare today, an impulsive M3/Sf flare occurring at 29/1252 UTC with an associated 720 pfu Tenflare. Proximity to limb hinders any meaningful analysis of this region at this time as the most recent white-light images indicate the trailing cluster of spots have yet fully rotated into view. Three other optically uncorrelated low level M-class flares occurred today along with multiple C-class flares. Region 87 (S08W20) showed steady decay over the period although it retains a weak delta magnetic structure in the southeast portion of the spot complex. Despite the region's magnetic structure it only managed to produce minor activity today. The remaining active regions were of little note. Regions 93 (S16E13) and 94 (S17E67) were also assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Aug a 01 Sep
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Aug 169
  Previsto   30 Aug-01 Sep  170/165/155
  Media de 90 Días        29 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Aug a 01 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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