Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 240 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 90
(S04E20) produced an M4/Sf flare at 28/1859 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
736 km/s. A significant Type four radio sweep and a Tenflare of 930
pfu were also associated with this flare. Region 83 (S18W84), which
is currently exiting the disk, produced an M1 flare (correlated
using SOHO/EIT imagery) at 28/1658 UTC. Region 87 (S08W07) showed
growth during the period as a delta magnetic spot became apparent in
the southeast portion of the spot group. Region 85 (S08W50) showed
a slight growth in penumbral coverage although remained fairly
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 87 has the potential to produce
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Aug 163 Previsto 29 Aug-31 Aug 160/150/145 Media de 90 Días 28 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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