Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 213 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 44 (S21W62)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 01/1707 UTC. Region 44 appeared to be
relatively stable maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 50 (S08W45) was very active, producing seven C-Class events.
The largest of these events was a C5/Sf flare at 01/0520 UTC.
Region 39(S15W58) continues to show gradual decay and has simplified
to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 57 (S08E02) and Region 58 (S05E72).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 39, Region 44, and Region 50 have
the potential for M-class events. Region 39 and Region 50 have a
chance of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one period
of minor storm conditions. A shock passage was observed by the
NASA/ACE spacecraft at 01/0425 UTC and a corresponding 26 nT sudden
impulse was recorded at 01/0511 UTC on the Boulder magnetometer.
This sudden impulse was followed by active to minor storm
conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A negative polarity coronal hole
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on day two of the
forecast period. There is a chance of active conditions due to the
effects of the coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 193 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 185/180/170 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 017/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/015-012/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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