Viendo archivo del miércoles, 31 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 39
(S15W44) produced an M1/Sb flare at 31/0153 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio burst. This region continues its gradual
decay but maintains a delta configuration in the leader spot.
Region 50 (S08W32) has shown growth in area and spot count while
maintaining its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 44
(S21W49) appears to have been relatively stable in the last 24
hours. New Region 56 (N04E49) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected from Region 39, Region 44 or
Region 50. An isolated X-class event is possible from Region 39.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
was detected at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at
approximately 31/1100 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was
northward resulting in little geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on days one and two of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jul 209 Previsto 01 Aug-03 Aug 205/200/200 Media de 90 Días 31 Jul 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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