Viendo archivo del martes, 30 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Regions 39
(S14W30), 44 (S20W33), and 50 (S08W19) produced isolated C-class
subflares. Region 39 began to gradually decay and simplify, but
retained a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its leader
spots as well as a delta in its trailer spots. Region 44 also began
to slowly decay, but retained a magnetic delta configuration within
its intermediate spots. Region 50 appeared to stabilize as a E-type
group of moderate size and complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and
44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period.
Region 50 could also produce an isolated M-class flare during the
period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 01 - 02
August. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jul 227 Previsto 31 Jul-02 Aug 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 30 Jul 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/010-012/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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